
By Christian Schmollinger
May 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York may rise to $77 a barrel over the next several months as futures contracts “correct” the decline from a record $147.27 in July, according to technical analysis from MF Global.
Oil may first climb to $71.75 a barrel, the level reached on Nov. 4, P. A. Rajan, a Singapore-based technical analyst at MF Global, said in a telephone interview yesterday. Crude could reach $77, near the level equal to the so-called Fibonacci retracement of 38.2 percent of oil’s decline from the July record, or $76.28 a barrel.
The gain is part of a so-called correction, or the reverse of a climb or decline, under an Elliot Wave pattern. The wave principle is a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. He concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.
“This oil rally is a correction for the 2008 sell-off,” Rajan said. “We could be in the start of a multi month rally. It’s a larger wave corrective uptrend.”
Oil futures in New York plunged 77 percent from $147.27 a barrel to $33.87 on Dec. 19, the lowest settlement since Feb. 10, 2004. Since then, prices have climbed 80 percent to $61.02. Crude for July delivery was trading down 37 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $61.30 a barrel at 8:17 a.m. in Singapore.
Rajan ascertained the $77 a barrel level based on the ratio between numbers in the Fibonacci sequence. Sometimes known as the golden mean, the ratio is used to find support or resistance as prices retrace rallies or declines between previous highs and lows.

